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Roundtripper Podcast #22 - The Offseason Shopping Spree!

12/27/2017

On Show #22 of The Roundtripper the offseason shopping spree is in full effect, and just in time for the holidays! Chris and Tom take a look at some of the biggest moves that have occurred over the past few weeks - in particular, the Giants recent major acquisition of 3B Evan Longoria. They also focus on some of the additional needs for several teams who may be looking to make a serious run in 2018, and postulate on landing spots for some of the most noteworthy free agents still on the market. They also drop in a few cringe-worthy baseball Christmas jokes, and Tom introduces his sabermetrically-minded associate "Shawn Greensleeves" (insert groan here).

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ROUNDTRIPPER Free Agent Value Rankings

12/7/2017

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Courtesy of mlb.com

by Tom Baird

First, please read a brief explanation of my rankings. These rankings should read like a crappy Fantasy Draft preview. They should not be understood as a straight ranking of players. I know that JD Martinez is better than Carlos Santana. I think that Santana will be underrated in this market, and will thus make a better signing for a team looking for value. Obviously, free agent signings have loads and loads of context that we cannot predict, so these rankings are extremely flawed. Still, I would rather consider cost than not consider it, even if the cost is a huge guess on my part, so here are my flawed rankings. Obviously, when these players get signed for significantly more or less money than I am expecting, the rankings will change.

Shohei Otani- He will sign for almost nothing. Even if not, I would rank him this high. His talent looks like make-believe. Great pitcher with a good bat. If one were to believe scouts, his talent is not the question. Statcast just released some data that reveals his two-way skills are real, suggesting that he can have Luis Severino’s fastball and Joc Pederson’s bat (yes, that’s good). It’s his role, and subsequently, his health, that are in question. It is difficult to believe that a pitcher would be allowed to be that vulnerable throughout the course of a full season. He seems bound to get hurt. If he simply pitches, he could be excellent. He is a power pitcher with control, and is young enough to get better. Michael Pineda was a power pitcher with control just a few years ago. Pineda is now at the bottom of this list because of injuries. Otani really needs to reduce one of his roles if he wishes to maximize his output on the field. I believe that Otani can be an excellent reliever slash outfielder, but he simply won’t do it unless he somehow agrees to be a closer.
Carlos Santana- 4 yrs/60M: Great eye at the plate. Great guitar solos. This ranking reminds me of all the times I listed Nick Johnson as a potential MVP candidate in my spring training predictions. Santana is not extraordinary, but is remarkably consistent and will come much cheaper than riskier options. He may be the opposite of Darvish (see below). He is very likely to outperform his price tag. If I’m wrong, he should be ranked much lower. He is an on-base machine with pop, and upside for more. Just like Nick Johnson. Also, Nick Johnson has been retired for several years but is probably going to be ranked 21st on this list.
JD Martinez 5 yrs/150M: His parents named him Just Dingers, but he chose to go by his nickname. JD is the best hitter on the market. Santana will be cheaper, and it’s the only reason he’s ranked higher. When JD was traded to the DBacks, I told my friend from Arizona that his team just got Manny Ramirez with worse defense. I predicted that the Diamondbacks had just made the deal of the year. JD made me look like a brilliant baseball genius. Just Dingers Martinez is a hell of a hitter, but his defense is historically bad. If your favorite AL team picks him up, you should be very excited.
Eric Hosmer- 6 Yrs/130M. More like Eric Bossmer. I like the power. He would fit well on any team, and could be worth 4 WAR per season for the next five seasons. That’s his upside. He won’t ever hit 300 again, however, and his walk rate isn’t impressive for a defensively poor first baseman. He’ll get 120 M, and he just might be worth it. He’s 28 after all. Still, I prefer Santana, given his skill set and cost.
Yu Darvish- 5 yrs, $140M. He is the best pitcher available, he’s incredible, and he won’t cost a prospect. Playoffs simply don’t matter here. That argument is crap. With all that said, I would never want my team to pay for an ace at this age with this health history. He’s devastatingly good, but he’s lower on this list because he simply won’t deliver on his price tag.
Jake Arrietta 4 yrs/70M- He is definitely going to cost more than he’s worth, but he can be worth 3 WAR per season for the next four seasons, and that means something. He could turn into James Shields within a year, too.
Mike Moustakas- 5 yrs/80M: I don’t believe the power. I do like his defense. He is really polarizing for me. If the right team gets him, he can be a really nice signing. Defense at the corner with power upside is a nice skill combo to fall back on.
Lorenzo Cain- 4 yrs/75 M: Remember when Coco Crisp was still with the Indians, and you made fun of his name, and he also played next to Milton Bradley, who also had a crazy name but was also a crazy person, and Peter Gammons was like “I believe that Coco will start hitting more homers soon?” That did not go so well. Bradley stopped making board games, and Crisp went stale. I think Lorenzo Cain is Coco Crispier.
Masahiro Tanaka- 5Yrs/75M. Again, don’t pay for an old unhealthy ace.
Wade Davis: 3 Yrs 50 M. Wily Peralta just signed with the Royals. He has great stuff, and isn’t good. I will bet money that Peralta’s 2019 is almost as productive as Davis’ 2019. Because relievers.
Jonathan Lucroy: 3 yrs/ 55M. He used to be the sabermetrics poster boy due to his gaudy framing stats and excellent bat. I remain a believer. This year may prove me wrong, but I believe that 2017 was a bit of an outlier rather than a huge sign that he’s done.
Alex Cobb 4yrs/50M: This is the pitcher that smart teams will go after. You want your team to go after Alex Cobb. I can’t predict which he team he’ll sign with, but I can imagine that the Dodgers, Cubs, Indians, Giants, Brewers, Angels, Astros and Yankees will go hard after Cobb.
Lance Lynn, 3yrs/40 M. The peripherals are bad. This guy used to chalk up 3 WAR seasons like a boss, and I really liked him. I don’t like him anymore. One might say that he’s Lost. He was good for four seasons, but then Penny’s boat showed up, Charlie died, and the rest was bound to be garbage. Lynn is nice depth, but likely won’t produce much more that someone that can be had for less, like Chatwood or Cashner.
Addison Reed: Two years ago, before the Dodgers lost to the Mets in the NLCS, I asked a prominent Statcast Podcaster via Twitter whether Reed would be a nice addition for the Dodgers, given the peripherals, his past success, and the fact he was DFA’d and would surely get picked up. He was not a believer. Reed was grabbed by the Mets and did little in 2015, but was one of the best relievers in baseball for all of 2016. Don’t go after Reed now. Get in a time machine and get him when he was a lottery ticket. Getting him now is called “Pulling a Sabean.” The Giants Exec is a smart guy that values veterans and has a great development program, but he is terrible about paying for dudes that won’t deliver on their contract.
Greg Holland- 3yrs/36M. I like Holland. I really do. His poor control numbers might actually improve a bit next year, being a bit further removed from surgery and the hellhole known as Coors field. If Minor is not a reliever, Holland might be the best reliever available. Apologies to Addison Reed and Wade Davis.
Zack Cozart- 4 yrs/42M. He just feels like a Giant. I know they have their own version of Cozart, so he can’t be a Giant, but man, he just feels like a Giant. Plus defense and power, with some upside. Captain Jeter is likely looking for a Cozart-type player in Miami, and I can see him heralding Cozart as the beginning of something great.
Jay Bruce 3yrs/56M: He has the numbers that teams are hoping to get from Moustakas. He does not play third, and he’s not so great at defense. The Giants have wanted him for years, and I think he finally becomes a Giant this winter.
Logan Morrison 3 Yrs/40M: If the new walk rate is for real, then I like him going forward. I doubt he ever hits 30 HR again, and his defense is slightly below average. He is a lesser version of Reddick, and Reddick is very good.
Todd Frazier: 3 yrs/32M Slightly above average defense will continue to decline with age, and the bat remains useful despite the drop in average. I think he remains a Yankee.
Brandon Morrow- 2 yrs, 16M. It feels like Dave Roberts found an intriguing old car at a Used Car Lot and bought it. He then drove that car faster and harder than anyone thought it could go. It was amazing. Then he crashed it in a ditch and walked away. I loved Morrow at the beginning of the season for his upside, and boy oh boy did he deliver. Still, I would prefer Peralta or Minor or garlic fries at this point. I hope he gets his deal, because a man that pitched in every game of the World Series deserves it, but I won’t expect him to deliver much.

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Mike Minor is Going To Get Paid

12/2/2017

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Courtesy of NBC Sports

by Tom Baird

Mike Minor was supposed to be good. Then he faded.

Over the past eight years, there have been several Atlanta Braves' players that were going to be great but weren't. While I understand this is common, it appeared that many players struggled to develop within that system over a brief time period. The team had Jason Heyward, Kris Medlen, Tommy Hanson, Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy, Andrelton Simmons, Julio Teheran, Jair Jurrjens, Johnny Venters and more over the past eight years, and they all seemed to stagnate in their development shortly after arriving to the majors. Some of this stagnation can be explained by injuries, but there is a solid argument that Fredi Gonzalez and his staff mismanaged some great players.

We all know what happened with Simmons. The under-appreciated all-world defensive talent was sent to Anaheim in an exchange that brought Atlanta two solid pitching prospects. Simmons initially struggled, and then found his groove. ESPN reports that this happened the week Simmons started hitting:

Unfortunately for Mike Minor, he was never traded to Anaheim, and thus never received divine help. He was forced to figure it out on his own. He did receive some helpful guidance from his pitching coaches in Kansas City, and managed to turn his career around. With the help of Royals' coaching staff, Minor decided to utilize a Fastball-Slider combination to dominate hitters. In fact, The Roundtripper has exclusive transcripts from their conversations:* We can show you, in great detail, how Mike Minor decided to adjust his repertoire.

Coach: Hey Mike, you need to throw one or two innings at a time. It will help your velocity, and it will help save your pathetic broken body.

Mike: Sounds good. I'm a reliever now.

Coach: Once you're regularly throwing 95mph, you can use the fastball about 10% more than you did in 2014, which is the last time you pitched because your body was broken.

Mike: Sounds good.

Gif from MLB.com via Beyond the Box Score

And it WAS good. This rising fastball showcases his new velocity and high spin rate. In 2017, he struck out 88 batters in about 77 innings. He also had a 4 to 1 K/BB rate.

The conversation continued.

Coach: Also, you know that slider you rarely throw? Can you please throw that twice as much as you did in 2014? It looks JUST LIKE your fastball when it comes out of your hand, and then either disappears or trails off the plate. If a dude does get a piece of it, it'll look like Tom's best hit in Little League.

Mike: Who's Tom?

Coach: Super cool guy, but he's bad at playing baseball.

Gif from MLB.com via Beyond the Box Score

And then 2017 happened. Mike Minor became Andrew Miller Lite, and now he's living the High Life. Minor's slider/fastball combination was likely the second greatest such combo among relievers in 2017. If you have watched the playoffs at all over the past ten years, you have likely seen a dominant fastball/slider combination from guys named Lidge, Romo, or Miller. When the pitcher is elite, this particular skill set can be close to unhittable. Hitters have to guess when they'll get a fastball, and it's almost impossible to guess that consistently against dominant relievers. If it's a fastball with a spin rate like Minor's, they will have a tough time barreling the ball.

Going forward, Minor will have to maintain his control, keep his newfound velocity, and avoid hanging his slider, but he should continue to be dominant. Brad Lidge and Sergio Romo ultimately declined due to hitters laying off the slider and waiting for a weak fastball. Given Minor's age and skill set, he is an excellent free agent reliever.

I have a confession. I have always insisted that teams should NEVER pay for relievers. I believe, just like Jonah Keri, that "relievers are fickle and unpredictable." In a recent article for Sports Illustrated, Keri states that teams should simply "scoop up as many quality arms as you can, then see which ones stick." I could not agree more, given how unpredictable relievers can be. As the Dodgers saw this year with Brandon Morrow and Kenta Maeda, and as the Royals previously witnessed with Wade Davis, some mediocre starters can be used quite effectively as power relievers. Why pay large amounts in cash or prospects to acquire a reliever when a player like Brandon Morrow can be found on the scrap heap for the league minimum?

With all that said, I think that contending teams can pay for a good reliever. I think that Mike Minor will make any contender a greater threat, both throughout the regular season and during the playoffs. Teams are able to maximize leverage through matchups, and we've seen recent playoff teams like the Royals, Cubs, Indians and Dodgers rely more heavily on their bullpen than on starting pitching in order to maximize leverage. I personally believe this may signal a new movement in baseball, even during the regular season.

Although Minor should land with a contender, I would not be surprised if a team like the Mets, Phillies, Brewers or Angels make a strong offer. Obviously, his market may ultimately be effected by Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Addison Reed. Considering age, health, and pitch control, I rank Minor as the top reliever available. I predict that he will be sought by half the teams in MLB, but will likely land with Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Boston, or San Francisco, for 40M/4yrs.

*This statement is a lie. I am lying. We have no connections.

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